Technology Trends and Outlook

Technology Trends and Outlook - Michael Horsch Fizz

2010-02-11T23:18:00.004-05:00

All News and Blog Updates

are located at:
http://itchannelsales.wordpress.com/
Technology Trends and Outlook
Michael Horsch Fizz

IT Infrastructure Vendor Sales Solid Q1 2010

2010-01-07T09:31:00.009-05:00

Tech sector and specific vendor details available upon request.

FCI Clients

GLG Clients

Not a client? Contact FCI client support at consults@fitceo.com

Happy Holidays and a Prosperous 2010

2009-12-23T19:59:00.008-05:00

2009 Forecasts / Vendor Reviews and 2010 Predictions Available

FCI's Enterprise IT Spending Q4 09'and Q1 10

2009-12-09T15:11:00.008-05:00

JUST IN: Detailed Vendor Data Available only until December 22.
Schedule a Consult with Michael for vendor and tech spending analysis for Q4 09' and Q1 10':
FCI Clients

GLG Clients

Not a client? Contact FCI client support at consults@fitceo.com

When China and India will catch up with the US

2009-12-09T15:02:00.004-05:00

A possible future.

Hans Rosling, at the first TED-conference in India, predicts when China and India will catch up with the United States in terms of income per person. He graphs global economic growth since 1858, depicting some of the main events using images and animated Gapminder charts.

http://www.gapminder.org/videos/hans-rosling-asias-rise-ted-india/

Enterprise IT Vendor Performance Numbers are in.

2009-12-05T22:35:00.003-05:00

For FCI clients - data for November will be in by Tuesday. Vendors are volatile. Clear differentiators from the good and the bad.
We will help you to see, hear and speak. Limited consult openings. Schedule your call ASAP.

20 Computer Hardware Companies - 100% stock price increase

2009-11-21T10:46:00.021-05:00

20 Computer Hardware Companies - 100% stock price increase since January 2009 to November 21st 2009. (List of 20 below)

CLARIFICATION: 100% stock increase "in total" of 20. Not each individual company. Some are higher, some lower, - the data reflects the average - It is simply a fascinating statistic considering the total tech sector.

What's Next?

GRAPH: Jan 06, 2009 to Nov 19, 2009 20 Computer HW / S&P500.

TABLE: Current Performance of the 20.

Review the current quarter Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 with Michael:
FCI Clients
GLG Clients

Agilysys, Inc.
Silicon Graphics International Corp
Apple Inc.
Concurrent Computer Corporation
Cray Inc.
CSP Inc.
Dell Inc.
Digi International Inc.
Franklin Electronic Publishers Inc.
GTSI Corp.
Hewlett-Packard Company
Ingram Micro Inc.
Maxwell Technologies Inc.
Socket Mobile, Inc.
SteelCloud, Inc.
Sun Microsystems, Inc.
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
SYNNEX Corporation
Tech Data Corporation
Voltaire Ltd.

NetApp on the rise.

2009-11-21T10:45:00.001-05:00

NetApp Announces Results for Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2010

Revenue Up 9% Sequentially and Nearly Flat Year Over Year

HP scoops 3Com. Your move Mr. Chambers.

2009-11-11T17:39:00.000-05:00

Healthy IT spending in the enterprise.

2009-11-07T22:33:00.004-05:00

Specific to the SI's we monitor, Q3 over Q4 09 forecast is a healthy 4.02% sequential growth for the large enterprise. Networking vendors for our SI’s have a 4.89% Qtr over Qtr expectation.
Contact Michael

FCI’s Enterprise IT Infrastructure Performance

2009-10-07T16:01:00.004-04:00

FCI Clients: Request for Consult with Michael Horsch Fizz

GLG Clients: Request for Consult with Michael Horsch Fizz

Specific Vendor performance and forecasts available.

IT Spending for the enterprise space on target for Q3 2009

2009-08-26T23:38:00.009-04:00

*As of today, 08/26/2009, we are on target to meet and possibly exceed the -.36% Qrt over Qrt forecast. We may very well see a number over 1% coupled with a healthy pipeline going into Q4 09'.

Some storage vendors are pulling these numbers up as well as networking vendors. Holding the numbers back are some of the enterprise SW vendors as well as enterprise server HW. Unified Communication interest is holding steady as far as interest for the enterprise space. Adoption is slower than expected.

Thoughts regarding some of the networking vendors posted by GLG News:

Cisco's advantages and challenges. Comparisons to Juniper, ProCurve, Brocade

Q3 Actuals versus Forecast plus the Q4 09' forecast will be available on October 3rd after 3pm ET. August numbers will be available September 3rd.*

Michael Horsch Fizz
FCI

*All information is specific to FCI and not the IT industry. Data is not guaranteed to be accurate and should be only used as part of a more in-depth industry review.

2009-08-05T14:07:00.006-04:00

FCI

8/5/2009 - FCI's IT Infrastructure spending trend update. July came in stronger than expected. More importantly the pipeline for the remainder of Q3 09' has improved.

Contact us if you have questions regarding specific vendor behavior and tech sector trends.

FCI clients and GLG clients may obtain performance details by sector and vendor.
FCI Clients go to: Schedule a consult with Michael Horsch Fizz
GLG Clients go to: Schedule a consult with Michael Horsch Fizz through the Gerson Lehrman Group

From the SI perspective we can review the strengths, challenges, competitor comparisons, client demand and future outlook. Through GLG we can provide Qrt over Qrt and month over month vendor performance numbers specific to our SI's coupled with forecasts.

In addition, we can share how present economic conditions have effected spending trends for specific technologies as well as a macro review of spending trends.

*All data and performance numbers are limited to our clients and are not predictors or indicators of total tech sector performance or vendor performance.

Michael Horsch Fizz

Vendors include but are not limited to the following:
3COM
3PAR
APC
AVAYA
BlueCoat (Packeteer)
BMC
Brocade
CA
Checkpoint
Cisco
Citrix
Data Domain
Doubletake SW
EMC
Emulex
ETS
Extreme
F5
Falconstore
Foundry
Hitachi
HP
IBM
Juniper
McAfee
Netgear
Network Appliance
Nortel
Oracle
Overland Storage, Inc.
Qlogic
Quantum Corporation
Radware
Riverbed
Sonicwall
Sourcefire, Inc.
Sun
Symantec
TrendMicro
VMware
Websense

IT Spending Q3 2009 Forecast and Q2 Actual

2009-07-07T11:08:00.008-04:00

IT Infrastructure spending in the large enterprise.*
Our forecast on April 2nd for Q2 2009 was 3.18% Sequential Qrt over Qrt growth. Actual on July 3rd came in at 2.78%. Our forecast for Q3 2009 is a -.36% Sequential Qrt over Qrt shrinkage.

FCI clients and GLG clients may obtain performance details by sector and vendor.
FCI Clients go to: Schedule a consult with Michael Horsch Fizz
GLG Clients go to: Schedule a consult with Michael Horsch Fizz through the Gerson Lehrman Group

From the SI perspective we can review the strengths, challenges, competitor comparisons, client demand and future outlook. Through GLG we can provide Qrt over Qrt and month over month vendor performance numbers specific to our SI's coupled with forecasts.

In addition, we can share how present economic conditions have effected spending trends for specific technologies as well as a macro review of spending trends.

*All data and performance numbers are limited to our clients and are not predictors or indicators of total tech sector performance or vendor performance.

Vendors include but are not limited to the following:
3COM
3PAR
APC
AVAYA
BlueCoat (Packeteer)
BMC
Brocade
CA
Checkpoint
Cisco
Citrix
Data Domain
Doubletake SW
EMC
Emulex
ETS
Extreme
F5
Falconstore
Foundry
Hitachi
HP
IBM
Juniper
McAfee
Netgear
Network Appliance
Nortel
Oracle
Overland Storage, Inc.
Qlogic
Quantum Corporation
Radware
Riverbed
Sonicwall
Sourcefire, Inc.
Sun
Symantec
TrendMicro
VMware
Websense

Enterprise IT Spending Update - June 2009

2009-06-09T10:10:00.016-04:00

1) We are on target for a 3.14% Qrt over Qrt sequential growth.

--> Request Review with Michael

2) 2009 IT trends in Health Care Vertical

From the client base we are experiencing the following 2009 IT Health Care trends:

SaaS - Tight budgets, working models and competition has pushed SaaS to the forefront again. TCO is lower in working models, time to production is reduced - RFP's, RFI's, RFQ's are showing a higher interest in SaaS versus traditional SW approaches. Momentum for Saas is steady and strong.
Web-based applications preferred for electronic health record initiatives. In addition, with the White House allocating $50B for interoperable EHR's there has been feverish activity from vendors but more importantly true interest from larger end users in health care.
Thin Provisioning for all resources in the data centers will continue to gain momentum. (Not just storage)
OS neutral applications and browser neutral applications are the future. Present clients are demanding neutrality resulting in easier implementations and deployments.

Similar trends are also found in the Financial Vertical.

--> Request Review with Michael

Follow IT Trends and Michael on Twitter

IT Tech Spending Q1 and Q2 2009

2009-05-06T11:38:00.004-04:00

March came in strong. However, still experienced a negative qrt over qrt for Q1 but it could have been much worse. With budgets finally finalized March came back strong enough to even give us some spill over into April. We are already a tad over 30% over Q2 forecast. Caution remains but optimism dared to show itself.

Nervous about the fate of Sun's Java under Elison. A double edged sword;
Brocade is stumbling with Foundry partners and clients;
Qlogic may win due to the Emulex scoop by BroadCom;
Solarwinds - I bright star on the horizon - their post IPO perf. should be very good;
F5 is looking good with v10 and their re-embracing of their partners;
Enterprise Security sales are okay but net profits are still poor;
3PAR had uphill battle with the enterprise - not as easy as their success in managed services;

FCI
Fizz

IT Spending in the large enterprise has stabilized and showing signs for the positive.

2009-04-20T11:09:00.006-04:00

From our sampling, IT Spending in the large enterprise has stabilized for now.

Q1 over Q2 09 forecast is a modest 3.14%. Average in the past four years has been 7-11%. Present SI projects coupled with a sudden increase in client RFI’s, RFQ’s and RFP’s indicate a flat Q3, HOWEVER it also indicates we can be optimistic for Q4 2009.

Interest continues to be stable and or increasing in the following:

Deduplication initiatives; (Can't help but enjoy the battles between the vendors and the push for both primary and secondary deduplication)
Server virtualization Initiatives; (VMware continues to champion as Citrix XEN has increased success on the desktop.)
Utility Computing Initiatives; (with long term interest into the private and public cloud)
Utility Storage Initiatives; ( no longer autonomous from other virtualization initiatives)
Network application acceleration, optimization and management initiatives;

Oracle is reaching for the Sun. We are still crossing our Cat6 wires in the hopes of Chamber's Cisco coming into the mix. Would put potential retro rockets on Cisco's strong push into the data center.

Tweeter Link: http://twitter.com/MHFizz

2009 Q1 Qrt over Qrt Predictions

2009-01-14T11:41:00.010-05:00

We are looking at a 0.75% Qrt over Qrt performance for Q1 2009. This is far below the previous five years. HOWEVER, if we come through with 0.75% we will be significantly better than the market.

Flat as a pancake if we are lucky. And an imploding soufflé if our clients hesitate in coming through with their P.O.'s.

NOTE: Even with falling short in some areas, we are experiencing success by feverishly embracing some niche areas with key vendors. See our last entry for additional data and perspective.

M.H. Fizz
FCI

Can you find the recession trends in History: Table of Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Private Fixed Investment in Equipment and Software by Type from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov)

**Comments on this blog are specific to our narrowed observations in North America and are specific to our exposure and resulting interpretations. Comments are not predictions of any general technology sector or specific vendor’s performance. It would be irresponsible for readers to make decisions based on our comments and opinions. They reflect only our own unique experiences and exposure to vendors, clients and the industry.

OUR Q4 2008 Review

2009-01-14T10:57:00.006-05:00

The end of November delivered an unprecedented challenge for us. We had to make up for a dismal October and November in 31 days. We fell short.

Coming out of a challenging Q3, our forecast for our Q4 was a 1.86% Qrt over Qrt growth. The Qrt over Qrt actual came in at a -2.512%.
Vendors that performed better than the majority: **NetApp, Cisco, Data Domain

Vendors that performed worse than the majority: **3COM, Nortel, Sun(JAVA), Extreme, Hitachi, IBM, Radware, Symantec, BMC, Netgear

The positive:
Our focus in the areas of enterprise storage, de-duplication, WOC, enterprise security initiatives such as intrusion detection and prevention are helping us to survive these challenging times.

The negative:
Reduction of our own workforce, expected 10+ % unemployment by end of March, clients in the Fortune 2000 space all waiting to see 1) what will happen next on the macro economic front? 2) within their verticals the majority are watching others in their vertical to see what THEY will do. Talk about a self fulfilling prophecy and strategy as we all stare at each other.

Our optimistic feeling:
Based on client indicators of intent the second half of 2009 will see a slight uptick in IT infrastructure spending.

Our pessimistic feeling:
No Comments.

**Comments on this blog are specific to our narrowed observations in North America and are specific to our exposure and resulting interpretations. Comments are not predictions of any general technology sector or specific vendor’s performance. It would be irresponsible for readers to make decisions based on our comments and opinions. They reflect only our own unique experiences and exposure to vendors, clients and the industry.

Technology Sector - Performance and Outlook - Update

2008-11-17T13:42:00.006-05:00

Enterprise Tech. Sector - IT Infrastructure Sales - Performance and Outlook (Nov. 17, 2008)
**

October 2008 came in weaker than expected for enterprise server sales and enterprise storage sales. Enterprise networking sales came in as expected. November so far has started slow however we have seen a steady increase. IF we can maintain a stable upward trend for the remainder of November we should be back on target. HOWEVER - December will be a bear and retard the actual qrt over qrt number down to1% or possibly zero.

The most common MACRO trend across all businesses, verticals, sellers and buyers has been continued tight credit.

POSITIVE NOTE: 2009 It budgeting meetings are indicating a slow start for 2009 however picking up in the second half. This corroborates previous preliminary data and information we obtained in the last 45 days from clients, vendors and SI's.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**2008 Q2 to Q3 Forecast: -0.49% Actual: -1.27%
**2008 Q3 to Q4 Forecast: 1.86% Actual: Available after Dec31

**2008 Q4 to 2009 Q1 Outlook: Flat for the first quarter of 2009. This compares unfavorably to the previous three years of Q1 performance averaging 4.11 Qrt over Qrt growth.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Comments on this blog are specific to our narrowed observations in North America and are specific to our exposure and resulting interpretations. Comments are not predictions of any general technology sector or specific vendor’s performance. It would be irresponsible for readers to make decisions based on our comments and opinions. They reflect only our own unique experiences and exposure to vendors, clients and the industry.

(*1)
The IT enterprise infrastructure sector is defined as enterprise server, enterprise networking and enterprise storage products and solutions as well as those technologies that are abutted against and entwined within. ie WOC (wan optimization controller) technologies, de-duplication technologies, server and storage virtualization,.. etc.

2009 IT Enterprise Infrastructure Spending

2008-10-08T11:13:00.016-04:00

In the large IT enterprise infrastructure sector(*1) we are entering the 2009 IT budget planning period. We have some early indications of 2009 IT spending. Indications are gathered from on going infrastructure “right sizing” meetings, RFI’s, RFP’s and RFQ’s coupled with long term client priorities and interests. In a presidential election year, we have seen delays in firm budgetary commitments until presidential elections are over. In addition, the current state of the US and global financial crises further challenges us in our predictions. As mentioned previously, many clients are simply hovering with IT spending decisions. However, despite the aforementioned we do have some thoughts on present behavior and 2009 IT enterprise infrastructure budgets.

For us, Network Infrastructure demands are presently steady favoring Cisco and Juniper and will continue to have steady slow growth for the rest of the year and into the first half of 2009. An average of a 2 to 4% qrt over qrt growth for us.

Converged communications initiatives have slowed and will continue to slow into 2009. We expect VoIP and converged communication sales to be flat for at least the first half of 2009.

Enterprise Storage solutions and products will be flat for the remainder of the year and at this time the first half of 2009 will see a slight increase in raw disk sales. Stronger and exceptional performance has been seen and will continue to be seen in the area of De-Duplication. One of the few technologies that provide a measurable ROI. Data Domain continues in the lead however I do feel they have NOT prepared sufficiently for the continued competitive pressures from EMC, Network Appliances, Symantec, and others. Representation (feet on the street) for Data Domain, direct and indirect (partners), needs to grow significantly to fend off the larger vendors.

End users are squeezing vendors and their partners hard on HW/SW costs. In addition, clients expect additional incentives. This includes dramatic price cuts on maintenance agreements, installation services and on going support. There has also been an increase in request for extended credit terms. Payment terms in the 45 to 60 and even 90 day range are not uncommon. As a result even though gross revenue continues to be steady, net income has shrunk for vendors, SI’s, and resellers.

As of this time, we expect 2009’s first half to be flat. For the second half of 2009 we are optimistic expecting moderate growth.

M.H. Fizz
FCI

Comments on this blog are specific to our narrowed observations in North America and are specific to our exposure and resulting interpretations. Comments are not predictions of any general technology sector or specific vendor’s performance. It would be irresponsible for readers to make decisions based on our comments and opinions. They reflect only our own unique experiences and exposure to vendors, clients and the industry.

(*1)
The IT enterprise infrastructure sector is defined as enterprise server, enterprise networking and enterprise storage products and solutions as well as those technologies that are abutted against and entwined within. ie WOC (wan optimization controller) technologies, de-duplication technologies, server and storage virtualization,.. etc.

Network Vendor Comparison Study Results

2008-10-08T09:42:00.004-04:00

Next client conference scheduled for 11/05/2008.

FCI Comparison Study includes SI/ReSeller Pre/Post Sales Support Ratings, Client Pre/Post Support Ratings, Product Quality, Market Share Comparison, Perceived Market Influence, Sales Trends, Expected Performance.

Reviews will include but will not be limited to:

Cisco
Juniper
Foundry
Nortel
3Com
Avaya

We will also review present WOC demand and trends including the recent Bluecoat/Packeteer challenges.

Our present SI Client Performance and Outlook

2008-10-06T19:58:00.004-04:00

2008 Q2 to Q3 Forecast: -0.49% Actual: -1.27%
2008 Q3 to Q4 Forecast: 1.86% Actual: Available after Dec31

We may adjust this forecast on 10/15/2008. Clients are presently hovering versus making a decision to purchase or cancel orders. The financial vertical is the worst for us with small pockets of exceptions. Our Q3 to Q4 forecast is the weakest in the last for years.